财联社2月10日讯(编辑 潇湘)1份年初的非农、1份1月中旬的CPI数据,在很大程度上奠定了美国股债市场新年伊始大涨行情的基础。而如今,2月初爆表的非农数据,却已率先在本月给了股债多头一个“下马威”,这无疑正令所有华尔街参与者眼下不得不怀揣着忐忑的心态,迎接下周二(2月14日)美国1月CPI数据的出炉。
在四天后的这个情人节之夜,美国通胀数据究竟是会给市场带来惊喜还是惊吓,目前尚不得而至。不过,本周率先出炉的一组物价指标,却或许能令人暂时松一口气……
根据美国零售商网站销售数据跟踪和分析公司Adobe编制的数字价格指数(DPI)显示,美国1月份在线零售商品的价格同比下降了1%,这是该指标连续第五个月录得同比负增长,为美联储官员所看到的整体商品价格的回落势头提供了新的佐证。
Adobe公司的DPI指数是围绕美国劳工部消费者价格指数(CPI)中的相同类别的商品构建的。在Adobe追踪的18个在线商品类别中,有一半类别的价格出现了同比下降,其中电子产品(同比-11.9%)和计算机(同比-15.8%)的降幅尤为明显。
虽然由于年底假日季的因素,1月DPI指数环比上涨了1.7%,但同比数据的降幅依然值得令人欣慰。一组历史数据的对比显示,在线商品价格的同比下降近几个月来一直在帮助拉低美国整体的通胀率。
Adobe公司负责增长营销和市场洞察的副总裁Patrick Brown表示,他认为在线销售的激烈竞争以及通胀对消费者的影响将继续存在。
他指出,“目前的需求水平正促使零售商压低价格,并继续出清过剩库存。”
目前,经济学家普遍预计,下周二出炉的美国1月CPI数据料将同比上升6.20%,较上月的6.5%进一步回落。不过,在本轮紧缩周期中首度出现的1月CPI环比负增长可能只是“昙花一现”,2月CPI环比料将攀升0.5%,主要将受到年底假日季因素的影响——厂商在1月纷纷结束了圣诞促销。
“超级核心通胀”也有利好传来?
事实上,美联储官员自身也已经意识到:商品价格下跌在近期通胀放缓中所起到的作用。包括美联储主席鲍威尔在内的多位官员已表示,他们将密切关注这种情况是否会蔓延到规模大得多的服务业。
如果想要让通胀回到美联储2%的目标,这一演变将至关重要。而一个令人鼓舞的现象是,美国白宫经济顾问委员会(CEA)本周三公布的一项新研究显示,势头可能正在朝着有利的方向发展。
近几个月来,美联储主席鲍威尔一直在专注于一个事实,即市场所谓的“超级核心通胀”部分——剔除了住房后的核心服务业通胀似乎仍在上涨。例如,在经济中占很大一部分比重的食品服务和医疗保健领域。鲍威尔认为,这些行业的通胀对薪资变化特别敏感,薪资增长的任何放缓都被视为物价上涨步伐也将放缓的证据。
对此,CEA的研究试图只在鲍威尔提到的上述部门中挖掘出具体的薪资增速信息,并最终得出结论:这一领域的增速正在快速放缓。
CEA指出,由于剔除了住房后的核心服务领域,相比其他领域具有劳动密集型的特征,一些人推测劳动力市场的紧张状况,可能在这一领域的高通胀中发挥了关键作用。
然而CEA发现,这一领域的普遍员工和主管人员的工资增长都已大幅放缓。
CEA的研究显示,对于“超级核心通胀”行业领域的大部分雇员而言,在今年年初平均小时薪资的同比增长率为8%,而现在这个速度已经低于了5%。
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