作者/魏昊铭
谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.US)股价周四下跌4.39%,这是通信服务类股票的一个负面例外,但这可能也体现了微软(MSFT.US)在人工智能(AI)领域似乎存在潜在的脆弱性。周三,谷歌的股价便已下跌了7.7%,此前该公司在巴黎发布的人工智能成果报告被普遍视为毫无新意。而且,谷歌AI搜索工具Bard在推广活动中,在回答与詹姆斯·韦布空间望远镜有关的问题时犯下事实性错误,加剧了人们对这些工具还没有准备好集成到搜索引擎中的担忧。
这让Alphabet与微软之间谁能在人工智能的未来占据主导地位的较量更加引人关注。就在谷歌推出Bard与OpenAI著名的ChatGPT竞争几分钟后,微软表示将举行一场惊喜发布会,展示ChapGPT与必应搜索引擎的最新集成。
尽管Alphabet股价大跌,但华尔街分析师仍持乐观态度,对该公司的评级普遍为“强烈买入”,还有几位分析师对最近的下跌持冷静态度。美国银行表示,微软最近拥有“更好的产品策略和演示”,而谷歌看起来“被动”;但谷歌搜索可能有“产品和分销优势”,以及谷歌可能有“更优秀的人工智能搜索技术,或者至少有更好的数据”。
瑞银总结称,谷歌在巴黎的活动“令人失望”。如果谷歌在这方面行动太快,它将面临以下风险:(1)声誉受损;(2)可能会取代搜索广告收入;(3)可能会增加服务成本。
瑞银表示:“与此同时,如果他们行动过慢,人们对竞争的担忧将会加剧,尤其是考虑到微软听起来愿意倾力争取搜索市场份额。不过,就微软在必应背后表现出的重大营销支持而言,如果谷歌继续推迟,我们可能会开始更加担心市场份额的流失和利润率的大幅下降,但我们目前还没有对此过度担忧。”
Truist指出,谷歌的谨慎做法给该公司股价带来了压力,但“我们相信它在人工智能研究方面的领导地位是不可否认的”,谷歌的搜索领导地位也将在一切都说了并做了之后显现出来:“我们怀疑,当将人工智能整合到两个系统时,我们应该不会看到实质性的变化。”
另一方面,摩根士丹利分析师Brian Nowak表示:“人工智能竞赛已经开始。机会是巨大的,但人工智能与搜索的深度整合将导致一些更高的增量搜索计算成本。”他估计谷歌目前每次搜索的计算成本是0.2美分,而该公司在自然语言查询方面的工作表明,平均成本可能是这一成本的五倍。
他指出,并不是所有的查询都将与自然语言集成,但谷歌的评论使他相信这一变化将是实质性的——谷歌搜索查询中每增加10%的人工智能/自然语言,就会使2024年的运营支出增加12亿美元(其他条件相同,将使该公司2024年的息税前利润预期降低6%),这意味着谷歌承诺的更高的成本效率现在变得更加重要。
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